Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,213$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(313 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,135.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,135.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $285$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,413$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,624.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,624.0\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,870$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,839.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,839.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,443$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,104$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217,243.7\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $31,106$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,354.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,457$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,390,406$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,433,999.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,433,999.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $84,119$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,357.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,062,857$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $230,985$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,421.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,264$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,059.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,059.8\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $196,689$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,909$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,043.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,043.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,460$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,528.3\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,478$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $174,098$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,178.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(167,178.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,861$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(848 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,815.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,815.6\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,537$ on 2020-05-13