Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • China
  • Iceland
  • Luxembourg
  • New Zealand

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,213$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(313 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,135.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,135.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(8.33 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $285$ on 2020-05-13

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,413$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(6.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,624.0}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(29,624.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,870$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(229 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,839.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,839.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,443$ on 2020-05-13

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $222,104$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.08 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{217,243.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(217,243.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,106$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,354.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,354.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,457$ on 2020-05-13

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,390,406$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.06 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,433,999.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,433,999.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $84,119$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(86,357.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,062,857$ on 2020-05-13

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $230,985$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,421.0}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 47.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,421.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,264$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,059.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33,059.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $196,689$ on 2020-05-13

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,909$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,043.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 52.8)}}\) (asimptote \(31,043.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,460$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,528.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,478$ on 2020-05-13

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $174,098$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{167,178.2}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(167,178.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,861$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(848 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,815.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(7,815.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,537$ on 2020-05-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Iceland recovered 99%
Luxembourg recovered 94%
New Zealand recovered 93%
Switzerland recovered 90%
Austria recovered 89%
Australia recovered 88%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Taiwan* recovered 82%
Croatia recovered 77%
Germany recovered 76%
Andorra recovered 73%
Tunisia recovered 71%
Niger recovered 70%
Slovakia recovered 63%
Denmark recovered 62%
Israel recovered 59%
Turkey recovered 54%
Cuba recovered 52%
Costa Rica recovered 50%
Lithuania recovered 48%
Malaysia recovered 47%
Czechia recovered 46%
Japan recovered 46%
Spain recovered 40%
Georgia recovered 28%
Italy recovered 28%
Serbia recovered 20%
Hungary recovered 12%
Kazakhstan recovered 6%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,024$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(109.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,513.0}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,513.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,538.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,538.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-05-13

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,802$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(434 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.78 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.2}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 22.7)}}\) (asimptote \(10.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-13

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,904$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(773 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,755.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 30.6)}}\) (asimptote \(3,755.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(18.8 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(99.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $172$ on 2020-05-13

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,497$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(344 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,474.4}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,474.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(3.93 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21.0}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 20.6)}}\) (asimptote \(21.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-05-13